by Gurumurthy Kalyanaram

COVID 19: Forecast of the diffusion

by Gurumurthy Kalyanaram 6 7

This manuscript is also available at: https://gkpolicybriefs.com/briefs/covid-19-forecasting-models

There are many epidemiological, econometric and statistical models that have been designed and developed to forecast the diffusion trajectory of Covid 19, and to forecast the mortality and resource utilization.

We have developed a very parsimonious and elegant model to forecast the mortality. This is an application of The Bass Model. We show that the Bass Model does as well as the other extant and sophisticated models.

This model has been published in the most recent issue of the International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing (IJPHM) with commentaries from four distinguished scholars and one eminent practitioner. 

“We calibrated the model for deaths for the period, March 21 to April 30 for the United States as a whole, and the U.S. States of New York, California and West Virginia.

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